Wood Wide Web

 

  • The "Wood Wide Web": Trees are connected underground through vast networks of mycorrhizal fungi. These fungi form a symbiotic relationship with tree roots, allowing them to exchange nutrients, water, and even information. Through this network, trees can send alerts to each other about potential threats like insect infestations or diseases.

  • Mutual Support: Trees within a community often exhibit altruistic behavior. They share resources such as water and nutrients, especially with young or struggling trees. This cooperation ensures the survival and health of the entire forest ecosystem.

  • Chemical Signals: When a tree is under attack by pests, it can release chemical signals into the air and through its roots. These signals serve as warnings to neighboring trees, prompting them to ramp up their own defense mechanisms.

  • Mother Trees: Wohlleben highlights the role of "mother trees" or the largest, most connected trees in a forest. These trees play a crucial role in nurturing younger trees by directing nutrients and resources to them, helping to maintain the forest's long-term stability.

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU) Valuation Report

 

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU) Valuation Report

Prepared by: Alex Lew

Date: 1st September 2024


Executive Summary

This report provides an updated look at Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU), factoring in the latest financial data from 2019 to 2023. Using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, I’ve estimated the intrinsic value of the trust to be SGD 6.45 per share. Since the current market price is SGD 6.8 per share, it appears the stock is marginally overvalued by about 5%. However, given the trust’s recent growth and increasing dividends, some investors might argue it’s fairly valued or even slightly undervalued.

1. Company Overview

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT) is a significant player in the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector, with a strong focus on retail and office properties across Asia. In 2023, MPACT expanded significantly due to its merger with Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust, leading to major jumps in revenue, net property income, and total assets.

2. Financial Performance (2019-2023)

Revenue:

  • 2019: SGD 443.9 million
  • 2020: SGD 482.8 million
  • 2021: SGD 479.0 million
  • 2022: SGD 499.5 million
  • 2023: SGD 826.2 million (up 65.4% year-on-year due to the merger)

Net Property Income (NPI):

  • 2019: SGD 347.6 million
  • 2020: SGD 377.9 million
  • 2021: SGD 377.0 million
  • 2022: SGD 388.7 million
  • 2023: SGD 631.9 million (up 62.6% year-on-year)

Amount Available for Distribution to Unitholders:

  • 2019: SGD 264.0 million
  • 2020: SGD 243.2 million
  • 2021: SGD 314.7 million
  • 2022: SGD 317.0 million
  • 2023: SGD 445.6 million

Distribution per Unit (DPU):

  • 2019: 9.14 Singapore cents
  • 2020: 8.00 Singapore cents
  • 2021: 9.49 Singapore cents
  • 2022: 9.53 Singapore cents
  • 2023: 9.61 Singapore cents

Key Financial Indicators:

  • Total Assets: Grew from SGD 7.1 billion in 2019 to SGD 16.8 billion in 2023, primarily due to the merger.
  • Total Gross Debt: Rose from SGD 2.35 billion in 2019 to SGD 6.94 billion in 2023.
  • Net Asset Value (NAV) per Unit: Increased slightly from SGD 1.60 in 2019 to SGD 1.76 in 2023.

3. Method of Valuation

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method:

To estimate the intrinsic value of MPACT, I used the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. This method involves estimating the future free cash flows (FCFs) the trust is expected to generate, and then discounting these cash flows back to their present value using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).

Here’s how I approached it:

  1. Projecting Free Cash Flows (FCFs): I estimated the FCFs for 2024-2026 based on the trust’s operating income, adjusted for capital expenditures (CapEx) and working capital changes. Given the trust’s significant growth after the merger, I applied a 3% annual growth rate to reflect stabilization and operational efficiency.

  2. Calculating the WACC: I used the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to determine the cost of equity, factoring in the risk-free rate, market return, and the trust’s beta. The cost of debt was based on the interest rates of the trust’s outstanding debt. I settled on a WACC of 3.80% for the analysis.

  3. Determining the Terminal Value: I calculated the terminal value, which represents the value of the trust’s cash flows beyond the forecast period, using a terminal growth rate of 2.0%. This reflects the long-term growth prospects of the REIT sector and the trust’s stable asset base.

  4. Discounting Cash Flows and Terminal Value: I discounted the projected FCFs and terminal value back to their present value using the WACC. The sum of these discounted values gave me the enterprise value of the trust.

  5. Deriving the Equity Value: By subtracting the trust’s net debt from the enterprise value, I derived the equity value. Dividing this by the number of shares outstanding gave me the intrinsic value per share.

4. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Free Cash Flow (FCF) Estimation:

  • 2023 FCF Estimate: Based on strong NPI growth and stable operating expenses, the estimated FCF after CapEx is around SGD 618 million.
  • CapEx: Adjusted to SGD 1.5 million, given the expanded asset base post-merger.

Projected Free Cash Flows (2024-2026):

  • 2024 FCF: SGD 637.2 million (3% growth reflecting post-merger stabilization)
  • 2025 FCF: SGD 656.3 million
  • 2026 FCF: SGD 675.9 million

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC):

  • Cost of Equity: 4.28%
  • Cost of Debt: 3.5% (reflecting the increased debt load post-merger)
  • WACC: 3.80%

Terminal Value Calculation:

  • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0%
  • Terminal Value (2026): SGD 42,519 million
  • Present Value of Terminal Value: SGD 37,115 million

Enterprise Value (EV) Calculation:

  • Present Value of FCFs (2024-2026): SGD 1,909.4 million
  • Present Value of Terminal Value: SGD 37,115 million
  • Enterprise Value (EV): SGD 39,024.4 million

Equity Value Calculation:

  • Net Debt (2023): SGD 6,940.8 million
  • Equity Value: SGD 32,083.6 million
  • Shares Outstanding: 5,260.9 million
  • Intrinsic Value per Share: SGD 6.45

5. Interpretation and Market Perception

Why Some Investors Might See MPACT as Undervalued:

  1. Strong Dividend Yield and DPU Growth:

    • With a current yield of 6.84% and a consistent growth in DPU, income-focused investors might find MPACT attractive. They may argue that the current market price doesn’t fully capture the value of these reliable and increasing distributions.
  2. Significant Growth from the Merger:

    • The merger nearly doubled MPACT’s asset base and significantly boosted revenue and NPI. Some investors might believe that the market hasn’t fully priced in the long-term benefits and synergies from this merger.
  3. Improved Financial Stability:

    • The substantial increase in total assets and equity, along with effective debt management, could lead some investors to view MPACT as more stable and poised for future value appreciation.
  4. Defensive Nature and Geographic Diversification:

    • MPACT’s diversified portfolio across key Asian markets provides defensive characteristics that some investors may believe are undervalued by the current market price.

Why the DCF Analysis Suggests Slight Overvaluation:

  1. Intrinsic Value vs. Market Price:

    • The DCF analysis estimates the intrinsic value at SGD 6.45 per share, slightly lower than the current market price of SGD 6.8 per share. This suggests a marginal overvaluation of 5%.
  2. Conservative Growth Assumptions:

    • The growth rates used in this analysis are conservative, reflecting realistic expectations post-merger. If the market is pricing in more aggressive growth, the current price might be overly optimistic.
  3. Higher Debt Levels:

    • The significant increase in gross debt following the merger could pose risks that aren’t fully reflected in the current market price, justifying a more conservative valuation.
  4. Modest Revenue and FCF Growth Post-Merger:

    • While the merger has driven substantial revenue growth, the projected FCF growth remains modest, indicating the challenges of integrating and optimizing such a large portfolio.

6. Conclusion and Investment Recommendation

Intrinsic Value per Share: SGD 6.45
Current Market Price: SGD 6.8
Valuation vs. Market Price: The stock is currently marginally overvalued by approximately 5%.

While the DCF analysis suggests a slight overvaluation, the difference is small. Some investors might see the stock as fairly valued or even slightly undervalued, especially those focused on income and long-term growth prospects after the merger. Given the narrow margin of overvaluation and the potential for future growth, I recommend a HOLD position, with a close watch on post-merger performance and any further debt management strategies.

Uni-Trend Technology (China) Co., Ltd. Valuation Report

Prepared by: Alex Lew, CFA

Date: 1st September 2024


Executive Summary

This report provides a comprehensive valuation of Uni-Trend Technology (China) Co., Ltd., using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, incorporating the latest financial data and detailed scenario analysis. The intrinsic value is estimated at CNY 10.28 per share, indicating a significant potential downside of approximately 67% from the current market price of CNY 31.54. This suggests the stock may be overvalued at present.

1. Company Overview

Uni-Trend Technology specializes in advanced measurement tools and IoT-enabled devices. With a solid market presence in China and recent expansions into the U.S. and German markets, the company is strategically positioned to leverage increasing global demand in the electronic instruments sector.

2. Financial Performance (2019-2023)

Revenue and Net Income:

  • 2019:
    • Revenue: CNY 464.24 million
    • Net Income: CNY 32.09 million
  • 2020:
    • Revenue: CNY 540.04 million
    • Net Income: CNY 53.27 million
  • 2022:
    • Revenue: CNY 885.56 million
    • Net Income: CNY 146.99 million
  • 2023 (for the nine months ended September 30):
    • Revenue: CNY 783.52 million
    • Net Income: CNY 131.82 million

EBITDA Margins:

  • 2019: 10%
  • 2020: 12%
  • 2021: 14%
  • 2022: 15%
  • 2023: 18.95%

3. Cash Flow Analysis

Free Cash Flow Calculation (2024):

  • 2024 Projected Revenue: CNY 1,211.84 million (16% growth from 2023 estimate)
  • 2024 Projected EBITDA: CNY 205.61 million (EBITDA margin of 17%)
  • 2024 CapEx: CNY 121.18 million (10% of revenue)
  • Change in Working Capital: -CNY 6.06 million (5% improvement)
  • Taxes: CNY 51.40 million (25% tax rate)
  • 2024 Free Cash Flow: CNY 39.09 million

Discount Rate (WACC)

  • Cost of Equity: 11%
  • Cost of Debt: 5%
  • Debt/Equity Ratio: 40% Debt, 60% Equity
  • WACC: 8.8%

Terminal Value Calculation

  • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.5%
  • Terminal Value (2026): CNY 1,332.55 million
  • Present Value of Terminal Value: CNY 1,013.88 million (discounted at 8.8%)

Enterprise Value Calculation

  • Present Value of Free Cash Flows (2024-2026): CNY 156.26 million
  • Present Value of Terminal Value: CNY 1,013.88 million
  • Enterprise Value (EV): CNY 1,170.14 million

Equity Value Calculation

  • Net Debt: CNY 25.30 million
  • Equity Value: CNY 1,144.84 million
  • Shares Outstanding: 111,324,609 shares
  • Intrinsic Value per Share: CNY 10.28

Valuation Methodology

The valuation of Uni-Trend Technology was conducted using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. This approach involved projecting the company’s future revenue growth and EBITDA margins over a three-year period, based on an assumed annual growth rate and incremental improvements in operational efficiency. Key financial inputs, such as capital expenditures (CapEx), working capital changes, and tax obligations, were factored into the calculation of free cash flows (FCF) for each forecasted year. The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) was determined by combining the cost of equity and cost of debt, reflecting the company's capital structure and risk profile. The terminal value, representing the company's value beyond the forecast period, was calculated using a conservative growth rate and discounted back to present value. Finally, the enterprise value was derived by summing the present value of future cash flows and terminal value, and the equity value was calculated by adjusting for net debt, leading to the intrinsic value per share. This method provided a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of the company's financial worth.

Conclusion

The DCF analysis indicates an intrinsic value of CNY 10.28 per share, suggesting that Uni-Trend Technology is significantly overvalued at its current market price of CNY 31.54. A HOLD or SELL recommendation is advised, particularly if cash flow management issues persist or expected strategic initiatives do not materialize.


Disclaimer

This analysis is based on the latest available data and assumptions as of the report date. Investors should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.


This report presents a purely quantitative valuation of Uni-Trend Technology, based on rigorous financial modeling and assumptions.

The Art of Japanese Management: Key Concepts

 

The Art of Japanese Management: Key Concepts

1. The 7-S Framework

ElementDescription
StrategyPlan for sustainable competitive advantage
StructureOrganizational hierarchy and reporting lines
SystemsDaily procedures and activities
StaffEmployees and their capabilities
StyleLeadership and operational approach
SkillsCompetencies of employees
Shared ValuesCore values and corporate culture

2. Japanese vs American Management Practices



3. Key Japanese Management Practices

  • Long-term employment (lifetime employment)
  • Consensus decision-making (Ringi system)
  • Collective responsibility
  • Holistic concern for employees
  • Subtle control mechanisms
  • Nonspecialized career paths
  • Implicit communication

4. Lessons for Western Managers

  1. Balance hard and soft elements of management
  2. Adopt a longer-term perspective
  3. Take a holistic approach to organizational management
  4. Explore ways to build consensus in decision-making
  5. Invest in broad employee development
  6. Recognize the importance of organizational culture


Benjamin Graham's Investment Tips: A Comprehensive Guide

 

Benjamin Graham's Investment Tips: A Comprehensive Guide

Benjamin Graham, often hailed as the father of value investing, has left an indelible mark on the world of finance. His investment principles, articulated in seminal works such as Security Analysis (1934) and The Intelligent Investor (1949), continue to guide investors seeking to build wealth through prudent, disciplined strategies. This article delves into Graham's core investment tips, providing a detailed exploration of his timeless wisdom.

Introduction

Benjamin Graham's legacy in the field of investment is unparalleled. His methodologies and principles have influenced generations of investors, including Warren Buffett, one of his most famous disciples. Graham's approach is centered around the concept of value investing, which involves purchasing securities that appear underpriced by some form of fundamental analysis. Let's explore Graham's key investment tips that have stood the test of time.

Invest with a Margin of Safety

The cornerstone of Graham's investment philosophy is the concept of a margin of safety. This principle involves purchasing securities at prices significantly below their intrinsic value, thereby providing a cushion against errors in analysis or unforeseen market downturns. By focusing on undervalued stocks, Graham believed investors could minimize downside risk while maximizing potential returns.

Graham's approach to the margin of safety often led him to invest in "net-nets," companies whose net current assets (current assets minus total liabilities) exceeded their market capitalization. This strategy ensured that even in a worst-case scenario, the liquidation value of the company's assets would cover the investment cost, thereby protecting the investor from significant losses.

Embrace Market Volatility

Graham's famous allegory of "Mr. Market" illustrates his view on market volatility. He personified the market as an irrational partner who offers to buy or sell shares at varying prices each day. Graham advised investors to take advantage of Mr. Market's mood swings rather than being swayed by them. This means buying undervalued stocks during market downturns and selling overvalued ones during market upswings.

To manage volatility, Graham recommended two strategies:

  • Dollar-Cost Averaging: This involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions. This strategy reduces the risk of making poor investment decisions based on short-term market fluctuations.
  • Balanced Portfolio: Graham advocated maintaining a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, typically allocating between 25% and 75% to each asset class depending on market conditions. This balance helps preserve capital during downturns while providing growth opportunities during upswings.

Understand Your Investor Profile

Graham distinguished between two types of investors: defensive (or passive) and enterprising (or active). Defensive investors prioritize capital preservation and seek steady, moderate returns with minimal effort. They typically invest in high-quality, well-established companies or index funds that track the broader market.

Enterprising investors, on the other hand, are willing to dedicate significant time and effort to research and analysis in pursuit of higher returns. They look for undervalued stocks, special situations, and other opportunities that require a deeper understanding of the market and individual companies. Graham emphasized that enterprising investors must be disciplined and thorough in their analysis to succeed.

Focus on Intrinsic Value

Central to Graham's investment philosophy is the concept of intrinsic value, the true worth of a company based on its fundamentals, such as earnings, dividends, and assets. Graham believed that the market often misprices stocks due to irrational behavior, creating opportunities for astute investors to buy undervalued securities.

To determine intrinsic value, Graham developed various methods, including the famous Graham formula:

Intrinsic Value=Current Earnings×(8.5+2×Expected Annual Growth Rate)

This formula helps investors estimate the fair value of a stock based on its earnings and growth prospects. By comparing this intrinsic value to the market price, investors can identify undervalued stocks with a significant margin of safety.

Conduct Thorough Research

Graham was a strong advocate for rigorous research and analysis before making any investment decisions. He emphasized the importance of understanding a company's financial statements, competitive position, management quality, and industry dynamics. This thorough analysis helps investors make informed decisions and reduces the risk of investing in overhyped or fundamentally weak companies.

Key aspects of Graham's research methodology include:

  • Financial Health: Assessing a company's balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement to ensure it has strong financial health and manageable debt levels.
  • Earnings Stability: Evaluating the consistency and growth of a company's earnings over time.
  • Dividend Record: Considering the company's history of paying dividends, which can indicate financial stability and shareholder-friendly management.
  • Valuation Metrics: Using valuation ratios such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Book (P/B) to determine if a stock is attractively priced relative to its fundamentals.

Diversify Your Portfolio

Graham recognized the importance of diversification in mitigating risk. By spreading investments across different asset classes, industries, and geographies, investors can reduce the impact of any single investment's poor performance on their overall portfolio. However, Graham cautioned against over-diversification, which can dilute potential returns. He recommended a balanced approach that spreads risk intelligently while focusing on high-quality, undervalued stocks.

Avoid Speculation

Graham made a clear distinction between investment and speculation. He defined an investment as an operation that, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Anything that does not meet these criteria is considered speculation. Graham warned against speculative activities, such as chasing hot stocks or trying to time the market, as they often lead to significant losses.

Maintain Financial Discipline

Graham emphasized the importance of financial discipline in investing. This includes setting clear investment goals, adhering to a well-thought-out plan, and avoiding emotional decision-making. By maintaining discipline, investors can stay focused on their long-term objectives and avoid the pitfalls of short-term market fluctuations.

Adopt a Long-Term Perspective

One of Graham's most enduring pieces of advice is to adopt a long-term perspective when investing. He believed that short-term market movements are often driven by irrational behavior and do not reflect the true value of a company. By focusing on the underlying fundamentals and having patience, investors can benefit from the market's eventual recognition of a company's intrinsic value.

Be Skeptical of Popular Opinion

Graham often warned against following the herd or being influenced by popular market trends and media hype. He believed that the best investment opportunities often lie in unpopular or overlooked stocks. By maintaining an independent, contrarian mindset, investors can identify undervalued securities that others may have missed.

Conclusion

Benjamin Graham's investment principles have stood the test of time, providing a solid foundation for countless successful investors. By focusing on undervalued stocks, maintaining a margin of safety, conducting thorough research, and adopting a disciplined, long-term approach, investors can navigate the complexities of the market and achieve sustainable wealth creation. Graham's timeless wisdom continues to serve as a guiding light for those seeking to invest intelligently and prudently.

Investing in Singapore ETFs: A Comprehensive Guide

## Investing in Singapore ETFs: A Comprehensive Guide

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have become a popular investment vehicle due to their cost-effectiveness, liquidity, and ability to provide diversified exposure to various markets and asset classes. This article will guide you through the process of investing in ETFs in Singapore, highlight the reasons to avoid synthetic ETFs, and discuss the tax implications associated with ETF investments.

### How to Invest in ETFs in Singapore

Investing in ETFs in Singapore can be done through several methods:

- **Brokerage Accounts**: You can purchase ETFs directly from the Singapore Exchange (SGX) via a brokerage account. This method provides flexibility and control over your investments[1].
- **Regular Savings Plans (RSP)**: RSPs allow you to invest a fixed sum regularly, typically on a monthly basis. This method is suitable for investors who prefer a disciplined, dollar-cost averaging approach[1].
- **Robo-Advisors**: These platforms offer automated, diversified portfolios that include ETFs. They are ideal for investors seeking a hands-off approach[4].

### Types of ETFs

In Singapore, ETFs are categorized into two main types:

- **Excluded Investment Products (EIP-ETFs)**: These are simpler and generally suitable for retail investors with basic financial knowledge[1].
- **Specified Investment Products (SIP-ETFs)**: These involve derivatives and are more complex, requiring investors to pass a Customer Account Review (CAR) to assess their understanding of the product's risks[1].

### Why Avoid Synthetic ETFs

Synthetic ETFs replicate the performance of an index using derivatives such as swaps, rather than holding the actual underlying assets. While they can offer certain advantages, there are several reasons to be cautious:

- **Counterparty Risk**: Synthetic ETFs rely on counterparties (usually banks) to deliver the returns of the index. If the counterparty defaults, investors may face significant losses[3][9].
- **Transparency Issues**: The use of derivatives can make synthetic ETFs less transparent compared to physical ETFs, which hold the actual securities of the index[3][15].
- **Higher Tax Implications**: Synthetic ETFs may incur higher capital gains taxes due to their structure, potentially reducing overall returns[3][9].
- **Regulatory Concerns**: Regulatory bodies have raised concerns about the safety and complexity of synthetic ETFs, leading to stricter regulations in some regions[9][12].

### Tax Considerations for ETF Investments

Taxation is a critical factor that can impact the returns on ETF investments. Here are the key tax considerations for Singapore investors:

- **Withholding Tax**: Dividends and interest income from ETFs may be subject to withholding tax in the source country. For example, US-listed ETFs typically incur a 30% withholding tax on dividends[2][5].
- **Fund-Level Taxes**: Some ETFs may be subject to taxes at the fund level, including direct taxes, net asset taxes, and transaction taxes[8].
- **Investor-Level Taxes**: Distributions from ETFs to investors may also be subject to withholding tax, and capital gains tax may apply upon the sale of ETF units[8].

### Choosing the Right ETF

When selecting an ETF, consider the following factors:

- **Expense Ratio**: Lower expense ratios mean lower costs, which can enhance net returns[2][5].
- **Liquidity**: Highly liquid ETFs are easier to buy and sell without significant price impact[2][5].
- **Tracking Error**: A lower tracking error indicates that the ETF closely follows its benchmark index[3][15].
- **Tax Efficiency**: Consider the tax implications of the ETF's domicile and structure. For example, Irish UCITS ETFs are often more tax-efficient for Singapore investors compared to US-domiciled ETFs[2][14].

### Conclusion

Investing in ETFs in Singapore offers a convenient and cost-effective way to gain diversified exposure to various markets and asset classes. However, it is crucial to be aware of the risks associated with synthetic ETFs and the tax implications that can affect your returns. By carefully selecting the right ETFs and understanding the associated costs and risks, you can optimize your investment strategy and achieve your financial goals.

For investors seeking a hands-off approach, robo-advisors and regular savings plans provide excellent alternatives to direct ETF investments. Always consider consulting with a financial advisor to tailor your investment strategy to your specific needs and risk tolerance.

By following these guidelines, you can navigate the complexities of ETF investments in Singapore and make informed decisions that align with your financial objectives.

Sources
[1] Ways to Invest in ETFs - Singapore - DBS Bank https://www.dbs.com.sg/treasures/investments/product-suite/equities/etf
[2] How to Buy and Invest in S&P 500 ETFs in Singapore - StashAway https://www.stashaway.sg/r/how-to-buy-invest-snp500-etfs-singapore
[3] How Synthetic ETFs Are Different Than Physical ETFs - Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/061614/synthetic-vs-physical-etfs.asp
[4] Investing In Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): A Newbie's Guide https://www.singsaver.com.sg/blog/investing-in-exchange-traded-funds
[5] The DBS Guide to Investing in the S&P 500 https://www.dbs.com.sg/personal/articles/nav/investing/how-to-invest-in-the-snp-500
[6] Physical ETFs are safer than synthetic ETFs – a misconception? https://www.etfstream.com/articles/physical-etfs-are-safer-than-synthetic-etfs-a-misconception
[7] ETF Investing 101 – Beginners Guide - Standard Chartered Singapore https://www.sc.com/sg/wealth/insights/etf-investing-and-what-you-need-to-know/
[8] [PDF] ETF taxation report for Singapore investors - Asia Risk Events 2024 https://asia-risk-events.eb8.infopro-insight.com/sites/default/files/2018-06/ETF_Tax_report_Singapore_EN.pdf
[9] The hidden risks of synthetic ETFs - ETF Stream https://www.etfstream.com/articles/the-hidden-risks-of-synthetic-etfs
[10] Top 10 ETFs in Singapore: Start Investing in ETFs - MoneySmart Blog https://blog.moneysmart.sg/invest/index-fund-etf-singapore/
[11] [PDF] ETF taxation report for investors - HKEX https://www.hkex.com.hk/-/media/HKEX-Market/Products/Securities/Exchange-Traded-Products/Launch/ETF-Tax-Report-2021-Sep_Singapore.pdf
[12] The decline of synthetic ETFs - justETF https://www.justetf.com/en/news/etf/the-decline-of-synthetic-etfs.html
[13] [2024 Edition] Complete Guide To ETF Investing in Singapore https://dollarsandsense.sg/complete-guide-etf-investing-singapore/
[14] Best ETFs to Buy and Hold Long-Term for Singaporeans - Connect https://www.syfe.com/magazine/best-etfs-to-buy-and-hold-long-term-for-singaporeans/
[15] Physical vs synthetic ETFs - Curvo https://curvo.eu/article/physical-vs-synthetic-etf

Graduate Crisis in China: Quantitative Analysis


China is currently facing a significant graduate employment crisis marked by high youth unemployment rates, an oversupply of tertiary-educated individuals, and a pronounced mismatch between graduates' skills and available job opportunities.

In June 2023, the youth unemployment rate in China hit a record high of 21.3%, prompting the government to halt the release of this figure. After statistical adjustments, the rate was reported at 14.9% in December 2023 and 15.3% in March 2024, nearly three times higher than the general urban unemployment rate of 5% in December 2023.

The record number of college graduates entering the job market exacerbates the issue. In 2024, the number of college graduates is projected to reach 11.79 million. This surge has intensified the mismatch between the supply of educated individuals and the demand for skilled labor. University acceptance rates have jumped from 33% in 1998 to 92% in 2021, with the number of tertiary students increasing tenfold, leading to an oversupply of graduates struggling to find relevant jobs.

The service industry, which makes up 53% of China's GDP, has been unable to absorb this influx of educated labor. Many graduates are reluctant to accept low-skill service jobs, leading to significant overqualification. The COVID-19 pandemic further decimated small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which previously accounted for two-thirds of urban employment. Additionally, regulatory tightening in sectors like after-school tutoring and real estate has limited job opportunities.

A notable indicator of the competition for stable jobs is the civil service exam. In 2024, a record three million applicants competed for just 39,600 civil service vacancies, highlighting the desperation for secure government positions.

The long-term effects of high youth unemployment are severe, including depressed lifetime earnings, reduced consumer spending, and delayed marriage and childbirth, potentially straining Beijing's welfare system. Socially, the frustration among unemployed graduates could exacerbate social inequalities and reduce social mobility.

From an economic theory perspective, the classical labor market model suggests wages should adjust to equilibrate supply and demand. However, the rapid expansion of higher education has led to an oversupply of graduates, preventing equilibrium. The Keynesian perspective emphasizes the role of aggregate demand, which has been dampened by the pandemic and regulatory changes, worsening the crisis.

Policy measures to address this crisis have had limited impact. While promoting vocational training and entrepreneurship are positive steps, they face challenges in alignment with industry needs and access to capital.

Several policy recommendations can address this issue. The government should enhance the alignment between higher education and labor market needs, promote partnerships between universities and industries, and revise curricula to include practical skills. Supporting SMEs through financial incentives and regulatory easing can create job opportunities. Improving labor market information transparency can help graduates make informed career choices, and addressing regional disparities by promoting economic development in less-developed areas can alleviate the concentration of job seekers in urban centers.

China's Housing Crisis 2024

 


Introduction

China's housing market, once a cornerstone of its rapid economic growth, has entered a severe crisis characterized by declining home prices, plummeting sales, and a significant oversupply of unsold and unfinished properties. This analysis delves into the quantitative aspects of the crisis, examining key metrics and trends to provide a comprehensive understanding of the situation.

Historical Context and Current State

China's housing market has experienced explosive growth over the past two decades, fueled by urbanization, economic expansion, and government policies encouraging homeownership. Real estate development became a critical driver of GDP, contributing nearly 30% at its peak. However, this growth led to over-leveraging by developers and speculative investments, creating an unsustainable bubble.

By December 2023, the market began to show signs of distress. Home prices in major cities like Beijing fell by 10-30% from their peak. Nationally, new-home prices in 70 major cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, decreased by 0.71% in May 2024, marking the most significant monthly decline since October 2014. Existing home prices dropped by 1%, the largest decrease since at least 2011.

Market Decline and Price Reductions

The housing market's decline is starkly evident in various metrics:

Price Declines:

  • Beijing: Home prices in Beijing fell by 10-30% from their peak by December 2023.
  • National Trends: New-home prices in 70 major cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, decreased by 0.71% in May 2024, marking the most significant monthly decline since October 2014. Existing home prices dropped by 1%, the largest decrease since at least 2011.

Sales and Inventory:

  • Residential Sales: Residential home sales were down 31% by March 2024.
  • Developer Cash Reserves: Property developer cash reserves fell by 26% by March 2024.
  • Top 100 Developers: New property sales for China's top 100 developers fell by 47% year-on-year from January to April 2024.
  • Inventory: The inventory of unsold apartments reached a record 25 months, indicating a significant oversupply.

Economic Impact

The housing sector's downturn has profound implications for China's economy:

Contribution to GDP:

The housing sector's contribution to China's GDP is projected to shrink to about 16% by 2026, down from its peak of nearly 30%. This reduction reflects a broader economic slowdown and reduced investment in real estate.

Local Government Revenue:

Revenue from land sales, a major source of income for local governments, fell by 33% from RMB 8.7 trillion ($1.2 trillion) in 2021 to RMB 5.8 trillion ($800 billion) in 2023, with further declines expected. This decline has strained local government budgets and reduced their ability to fund public services and infrastructure projects.

Government Interventions

The Chinese government has implemented several measures to stimulate the housing market:

Stimulus Measures:

  • Lowering down payment thresholds and mortgage interest rates for first-time buyers.
  • Cutting existing mortgage interest rates and allowing loan rollovers to the next generation.
  • Encouraging local governments to buy unsold homes and convert them into affordable housing.
  • Implementing a 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) loan program by the People's Bank of China to support these purchases.

Effectiveness and Challenges:

Despite these interventions, the measures have yet to provide a sustainable solution. Property investment declined by 9.8% in the first four months of 2024, and new property sales plunged by 28.3% in the same period. Analysts argue that the current funding and measures are insufficient to address the magnitude of the crisis, which may require hundreds of billions of dollars.

Structural Issues

Several deep-rooted structural issues exacerbate the housing crisis:

Demographic Changes:

China's ageing and declining population is leading to a natural contraction in housing demand. The one-child policy has resulted in a skewed male-to-female ratio, further reducing the potential for new household formation.

Cultural Factors:

Property ownership is deeply ingrained in Chinese culture, often seen as a symbol of prosperity and a prerequisite for marriage. However, the current economic uncertainty and job insecurity are eroding consumer confidence in the housing market.

Developer Defaults and Financial Strain

The financial strain on developers has reached critical levels:

Major Defaults:

The collapse of major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden has sent shockwaves through the industry. Evergrande defaulted on over $300 billion in debt, while Country Garden faces a liquidity crunch with $205 billion in debt. These defaults have raised concerns about the solvency of other major developers, including Vanke, which has seen its credit rating downgraded to junk status.

Impact on State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs):

Even state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are not immune to the crisis. Sales at top SOE developers have slumped, and some quasi-SOEs have slipped into financial difficulties.

Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations

The future outlook for China's housing market remains uncertain:

Long-Term Projections:

Housing investment is expected to fall 30-60% below its 2022 level and rebound only gradually. This decline is comparable to major housing downturns in other countries with similarly sizable slowdowns in starts.

Should You Buy REITs in Singapore Now?

In the ever-fluctuating world of investments, is now the golden opportunity to capitalize on Singapore REITs (S-REITs)? This question is not merely rhetorical but demands a deep dive into the current market landscape, valuation metrics, and sector-specific opportunities, all while being guided by the timeless principles of Benjamin Graham.

Current Market Conditions

The S-REIT market has faced notable volatility in 2023, primarily due to rising interest rates. However, the tides may be turning. With operational performance remaining robust, certain sectors like logistics and retail are demonstrating remarkable resilience. Logistics sector rents have surged by 11.7% year-to-date, while retail rents saw a modest yet promising 1.4% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3 2023.

Valuation and Yield

A cornerstone of Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy is value investing—buying securities that are undervalued relative to their intrinsic worth. S-REITs are currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.85x, nearing a decade low. This presents a compelling value-buying opportunity. Furthermore, with average yields around 7.7%, S-REITs offer a substantial yield spread over the 3.5% yield on Singapore Government 10-year bonds, making them an attractive proposition for income-focused investors.

Interest Rate Environment

The Federal Reserve's current stance suggests that the interest rate hike cycle may have concluded. Historically, pauses and cuts in interest rates have spurred strong S-REIT performance. Lower interest rates can reduce financing costs, enhance dividend yield spreads over bonds, and potentially lead to higher property valuations—all favorable conditions for S-REITs.

Sector-Specific Opportunities

  • Industrial and Logistics REITs: Benefiting from structural tailwinds like growing e-commerce and supply chain resilience. For instance, Mapletree Logistics Trust reported a 2.1% year-on-year increase in gross revenue for Q3 FY2024.
  • Data Centre REITs: With digitalization and the rise of generative AI, the demand for data centers is increasing, making this a promising sector.
  • Retail REITs: Despite challenges, retail REITs such as Frasers Centrepoint Trust have maintained high occupancy rates and made strategic acquisitions, showcasing resilience.

Risks and Considerations

  • Economic Slowdown: While S-REITs provide stable cash flows, an economic downturn could impact tenant demand and rental income.
  • Regulatory Changes: Any adverse regulatory shifts could affect the REIT market.
  • Market Volatility: Investors must brace for short-term volatility influenced by shifting market expectations regarding interest rates.

Conclusive Call to Action: Decisive Investment Direction

In light of the attractive valuations, high yields, and the potential benefits from a favorable interest rate environment, I recommend a decisive "buy" on S-REITs. Focus particularly on sectors with strong structural demand, such as industrial, logistics, and data centers, to leverage their resilience and growth potential. However, maintain a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with economic and regulatory uncertainties.

By adhering to Benjamin Graham's principles of value investing and thorough analysis, this strategic move could position you for robust returns in the evolving market landscape of S-REITs.