A strong franchise brand does not guarantee outlet economics.
KOI Thé Singapore is a credible premium tea brand, but the outlet-level question is narrower: can a specific site clear enough cups per day after rent, labor, royalty, delivery fees, and setup capital?
| AssetKOI Thé Singapore outlet | JurisdictionSingapore | Date2026-04-28 |
Base-case economics are financially tight.
The public record supports KOI's Singapore presence and historical profitability, but current outlet-level P&L is not public. The model below makes the math visible and gives one deterministic Phalanx point estimate.
| Base-Case Deal Math Summary One outlet | Singapore | 2026 model | |||
| Enterprise ValueS$185kPhalanx point estimate. | Estimated Cost InS$237.6k-S$421.2kOpening capital range. | Monthly Cash InS$40.5k250 cups/day x S$5.40 x 30. | Monthly Cash OutS$36.7kVariable + fixed opex. |
| Running OpexS$18.45k fixedRent, labor, other opex. | Variable OpexS$18.23kCOGS, royalty, delivery. | Operating ProfitS$3.83k/monthBefore owner salary/tax/D&A. | Payback5.2-9.2 yrsAt 250 cups/day. |
Human Assessment: marginal at base case.
The brand story is strong, but the modeled outlet does not look high-comfort at 250 cups/day. The S$185k EV is below estimated setup capital, and S$3.83k monthly operating profit is thin against fixed opex. The case needs higher sustained volume, lower rent, or direct owner-operator economics.
| Human Read Marginal at base |
Comfort Threshold Closer to 350 cups/day |
Main Concern Payback too long |
Must Prove Traffic and lease quality |
At 250 cups/day, the model clears only S$3.8k/month before owner salary.
| Line Item | Formula / Basis | Monthly SGD | % Revenue | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross revenue | 250 x S$5.40 x 30 | 40,500 | 100.0% | Estimate |
| COGS and packaging | 35% of revenue | (14,175) | (35.0%) | Assumption |
| Franchise royalty | 6% of gross revenue | (2,430) | (6.0%) | Verified |
| Delivery drag | 20% mix x 20% commission | (1,620) | (4.0%) | Assumption |
| Contribution | Revenue less variable costs | 22,275 | 55.0% | Estimate |
| Rent | Base mall/kiosk scenario | (7,500) | (18.5%) | Estimate |
| Labor | 3.5 FTE x S$2,500 | (8,750) | (21.6%) | Estimate |
| Other opex | Utilities, POS, maintenance, misc. | (2,200) | (5.4%) | Assumption |
| Operating profit | Contribution less fixed opex | 3,825 | 9.4% | Estimate |
Rent is a volume target disguised as a fixed cost.
| Scenario | Rent | Break-Even Cups/Day | Monthly Profit | Readout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower-rent site | S$4,000 | 168 | S$7,325 | More forgiving if traffic is adequate. |
| Base case | S$7,500 | 207 | S$3,825 | Thin margin before owner salary. |
| High-rent site | S$10,000 | 235 | S$1,325 | Little room for error. |
| Prime-rent site | S$15,000 | 291 | (S$3,675) | Needs proven high throughput. |
| Cups/Day | Monthly Revenue | Monthly Profit | Annual Profit | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | S$24.3k | (S$5.1k) | N/M | N/M |
| 250 | S$40.5k | S$3.8k | S$45.9k | 5.2-9.2 yrs |
| 350 | S$56.7k | S$12.7k | S$152.8k | 1.6-2.8 yrs |
Point estimate: S$185,000 enterprise value.
Calculation: S$45,900 base annual operating profit / 25.0% selected capitalization rate = S$183,600, rounded to S$185,000.
| Method | Calculation | Value | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phalanx point estimate | S$45.9k / 25% cap rate | S$185k | Base-case house number. |
| Asset floor | Depreciated fit-out/equipment | S$60k-S$120k | Downside anchor. |
| Base earnings | S$45.9k / 20-30% cap rate | S$153k-S$230k | Small-site concentration risk. |
| High-throughput case | 350 cups/day earnings | S$509k-S$764k | Requires proven volume. |
The highest-risk items are measurable diligence questions.
| Risk | Evidence | Heat | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale financial data | 2017 revenue/margin is the main public financial reference. | Critical | Current economics may differ materially. |
| Traffic shortfall | Base case needs ~207 cups/day. | High | Small misses directly hit contribution. |
| Rent escalation | Every S$1k/month rent needs ~11 more cups/day. | High | Rent converts into required throughput. |
| Labor pressure | Food-services PWM rises through 2028. | High | Fixed cost base rises over time. |
| Contract opacity | Territory, renewal, transfer terms are not public. | Medium | Controls durability and exit value. |
The agency output is visible, not a black box.
| Agent | Output | Open Issue |
|---|---|---|
| Entity & Brand Agent | Confirmed KOI entity basics and official store/menu footprint. | Outlet count by format needs export. |
| Source QA Agent | Tagged numbers as verified, directional, estimate, or assumption. | Current P&L is not public. |
| Unit Economics Agent | Built S$40.5k revenue, S$3.8k profit, and ~207 cups/day break-even. | Needs POS, roster, delivery mix, rent. |
| Valuation Agent | Produced S$185k point estimate and range checks. | Transfer rights and lease terms matter. |
| Risk Agent | Elevated stale data, traffic, rent, labor, contract opacity. | Re-score after site evidence. |
The headline estimate is reproducible.
- Revenue: 250 cups/day x S$5.40 x 30 days = S$40,500/month.
- Variable costs: 35% COGS + 6% royalty + 4% blended delivery drag = 45% of revenue = S$18,225/month.
- Contribution: S$40,500 - S$18,225 = S$22,275/month.
- Fixed opex: S$7,500 rent + S$8,750 labor + S$2,200 other opex = S$18,450/month.
- Operating profit: S$22,275 - S$18,450 = S$3,825/month, or S$45,900/year.
- Point EV: S$45,900 / 25% cap rate = S$183,600, rounded to S$185,000.
- Break-even cups: S$18,450 fixed costs / 55% contribution margin / S$5.40 / 30 = ~207 cups/day.
Public sources frame the case; site data decides it.
Key public sources include KOI official pages, OpenGovSG company registry mirror, The Business Times, VulcanPost, SingSaver, MOM food-services PWM schedule, HPB Nutri-Grade, Mordor Intelligence, 6Wresearch, and Chagee investor releases.
Disclaimer
This material is public research and analytical decision support only. It is not legal, tax, accounting, brokerage, lending, or regulated financial advice and does not recommend entering or avoiding any transaction.
Conclusions are based on public sources, explicit assumptions, and Phalanx analytical judgment. Current KOI Singapore audited financials, outlet-level P&L data, and full franchise agreement were not available in the public source base.