Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.
Table of Contents
1. Company Overview
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PARR) is an independent downstream petroleum refiner headquartered in Houston, Texas. The company operates a network of four refineries across Hawaii, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming, with a combined crude throughput capacity of 219 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd).[1] Par Pacific also operates retail fuel and convenience-store networks under the Hele and nomnom brands in Hawaii, and holds interests in midstream logistics and Laramie Resources (natural gas).
The business is structured around three reportable segments — Refining, Retail, and Logistics — with refining generating the vast majority of revenues. As a small-to-mid-cap independent refiner, PARR is exposed to refining margins (crack spreads), crude oil price differentials, and regulatory dynamics (e.g. Small Refinery Exemptions under the RFS programme).
On April 17, 2026, the stock was trading at $55.27, down 13.25% on the day, likely reflecting near-term crude price and margin headwinds. Over the trailing 52 weeks, the stock has gained +318.5%, reflecting a powerful earnings recovery.[2]
2. Financial Snapshot
Source: Par Pacific 2025 Form 10-K (filed Feb 2026), Q4 2022–2025 press releases.[1]
2a. Income Statement Summary
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $7.32 | $8.23 | $7.97 | $7.46 | $7.60[3] |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $643.4 | $696.2 | $238.7 | $633.5 | $450–500[3] |
| Net Income ($M) | $364.2 | $728.6 | ($33.3) | $369.4 | N/A |
| EPS (Reported) | $6.08 | $12.31 | ($0.59) | $7.16 | $8.94–9.14[2][3] |
| EBITDA Margin | 8.8% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 8.5% | ~6.2% |
| Net Margin | 5.0% | 8.9% | NM | 4.9% | N/A |
2b. Balance Sheet & Cash Flow (Dec 31, 2025)
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $164.1M |
| Total Debt | $802.9M |
| Net Debt | $638.8M |
| Total Equity | $1,511.5M |
| Shares Outstanding | 49.0M |
| Book Value Per Share (BVPS) | $30.85 |
| Market Cap | $3,150M |
| Enterprise Value (EV) | ~$3,789M |
| Net Debt / 2025 Adj. EBITDA | 1.01x |
| Free Cash Flow (FY2025) | $296.4M |
| CapEx (FY2025) | $148.9M |
EV = Market Cap + Net Debt = $3,150M + $638.8M = $3,788.8M. FCF = Operating Cash Flow ($445.3M) minus CapEx ($148.9M).[1]
2c. Operational Profile
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Refinery Throughput (Mbpd) | 186.7 | 187.8 |
| Nameplate Capacity (Mbpd) | 219.0 | |
| Utilisation Rate | 85.3% | 85.8% |
| Adj. Gross Margin ($/bbl) | N/A | $14.60 |
3. Comparable Company Analysis (Trading Comps)
Source: Yahoo Finance Key Statistics (April 17, 2026), Zacks Industry Outlook (April 2026), Equidam (Jan 2026), Damodaran Online (Jan 2026).[4][5][6]
| Company | Ticker | EV/EBITDA (LTM) | EV/EBITDA (NTM) | Fwd P/E | P/Sales | EV/Rev | ND/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valero Energy | VLO | 9.96x | 8.8x | 12.1x | 0.31x | 0.62x | 0.92x |
| Phillips 66 | PSX | 5.05x | 5.2x | 15.4x | 0.50x | 0.41x | 3.07x |
| HF Sinclair | DINO | 5.05x | 5.1x | 18.2x | 0.39x | 0.31x | 1.58x |
| PBF Energy | PBF | 11.66x | 10.5x | 12.0x | 0.17x | 0.25x | NM |
| CVR Energy | CVI | 7.74x | 7.2x | 32.5x | 0.46x | 0.64x | 2.24x |
| Calumet Specialty | CLMT | 21.65x | 18.4x | 11.4x | 0.68x | 1.25x | 10.27x |
| Sector Average (excl. CLMT) | — | 7.89x | 7.36x | 18.0x | 0.37x | 0.45x | 1.95x |
| Par Pacific (PARR) | PARR | 5.99x | ~8.4x | 6.97x (Fwd) | 0.42x | 0.51x | 1.01x |
PARR EV/EBITDA (LTM) = EV $3,789M / FY2025 Adj. EBITDA $633.5M = 5.99x. NTM uses midpoint forward EBITDA of $475M: $3,789M / $475M = 7.98x. PARR P/Sales = Market Cap $3,150M / FY2025 Revenue $7,460M = 0.42x. CLMT excluded from sector average due to specialty-product premium and 10x+ leverage.[4][5][6]
4. EV/EBITDA Valuation
We apply sector-average LTM (7.89x) and NTM (7.36x) multiples to PARR's EBITDA figures. Given PARR's below-average leverage (net debt/EBITDA 1.01x vs. sector 1.95x) and a clean balance sheet, a modest premium to the sector average is justifiable. We test a bear/base/bull scenario.
Using FY2025 LTM Adj. EBITDA = $633.5M
| Scenario | EV/EBITDA Multiple | Implied EV ($M) | Less: Net Debt ($M) | Implied Equity ($M) | Per Share (49.0M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear (4.5x) | 4.5x | $2,851 | ($639) | $2,212 | $45.14 |
| Base (6.0x — sector low) | 6.0x | $3,801 | ($639) | $3,162 | $64.53 |
| Base (7.9x — sector avg) | 7.9x | $5,005 | ($639) | $4,366 | $89.09 |
| Bull (9.0x) | 9.0x | $5,702 | ($639) | $5,063 | $103.32 |
Using NTM Adj. EBITDA Midpoint = $475M (FY2026E)
| Scenario | EV/EBITDA Multiple | Implied EV ($M) | Less: Net Debt ($M) | Implied Equity ($M) | Per Share (49.0M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear (4.5x) | 4.5x | $2,138 | ($639) | $1,499 | $30.59 |
| Base (6.0x) | 6.0x | $2,850 | ($639) | $2,211 | $45.12 |
| Base (7.9x) | 7.9x | $3,753 | ($639) | $3,114 | $63.55 |
| Bull (9.0x) | 9.0x | $4,275 | ($639) | $3,636 | $74.20 |
The bear scenario NTM reflects a possible further deterioration in crack spreads in 2026. LTM valuations reflect par Pacific's strong FY2025 earnings recovery. Current price $55.27 sits inside the NTM base range (4.5x–7.9x), consistent with the market pricing in some EBITDA compression in 2026.
5. Price/Earnings Valuation
Using forward EPS estimates of $8.94–$9.14 and applying peer forward P/E multiples (sector average ~18.0x excluding CVR's distorted 32x; tighter comp set of VLO 12.1x, PBF 12.0x, CLMT 11.4x implies a small-cap refiner range of 11–14x).
| Scenario | Fwd EPS | P/E Multiple | Implied Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $8.94 | 7.0x | $62.58 |
| Base-Low | $9.14 | 9.0x | $82.26 |
| Base (Sector comp) | $9.14 | 11.0x | $100.54 |
| Bull | $9.14 | 14.0x | $127.96 |
PARR's current forward P/E of 6.97x is among the lowest in the peer set. If the market re-rates it toward even a modest refiner multiple of 9–11x, significant upside exists. The forward EPS of $9.14 is sourced from screenshot data[2] and corroborated by Simply Wall St analyst consensus of $8.94–$9.14.[3]
6. EV/Revenue Valuation
Using FY2025 revenue of $7.46B and FY2026E revenue of $7.60B with sector EV/Revenue range 0.25x–0.64x (peer average ~0.45x).
| Scenario | EV/Rev Multiple | Revenue ($B) | Implied EV ($M) | Less: Net Debt | Implied Price/Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear (PBF level, 0.25x) | 0.25x | $7.46 | $1,865 | ($639) | $25.02 |
| Base (sector avg, 0.45x) | 0.45x | $7.46 | $3,357 | ($639) | $55.47 |
| Base (Valero level, 0.62x) | 0.62x | $7.46 | $4,625 | ($639) | $81.35 |
| Bull (0.80x) | 0.80x | $7.46 | $5,968 | ($639) | $108.76 |
At a 0.45x EV/Revenue multiple, the implied price of $55.47 closely approximates the current market price of $55.27, suggesting the market is pricing PARR at the lower bound of sector-average EV/Revenue. This method is a secondary check and less reliable for capital-intensive refiners where margins matter more than revenues.
7. Price/Book Valuation
PARR's Book Value Per Share (BVPS) of $30.85 and current price of $55.27 imply a Price/Book of 1.79x. Sector-typical P/B for independent refiners ranges from 1.5x to 3.0x.
| Scenario | P/B Multiple | BVPS ($30.85) | Implied Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear (1.0x — book value) | 1.0x | $30.85 | $30.85 |
| Base-Low (1.5x) | 1.5x | $30.85 | $46.28 |
| Base (2.0x) | 2.0x | $30.85 | $61.70 |
| Bull (2.5x) | 2.5x | $30.85 | $77.13 |
| Bull High (3.0x) | 3.0x | $30.85 | $92.55 |
Current P/B of 1.79x is within normal range for profitable refiners. As book value continues to grow with retained earnings, this multiple provides a floor/sanity check. BVPS derived from Dec 31, 2025 equity of $1,511.5M / 49.0M shares.[1]
8. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
We construct a simplified 5-year DCF using Free Cash Flow (FCF) as the base, anchoring on FY2025 FCF of $296.4M. We model three scenarios for FCF growth, apply a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and terminal value at exit multiple.
Key DCF Assumptions
| Parameter | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FCF (FY2025 Actual, $M) | $296.4 | $296.4 | $296.4 |
| FCF Growth — Years 1–3 | -5% | +3% | +8% |
| FCF Growth — Years 4–5 | -2% | +2% | +5% |
| WACC | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
| Terminal EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 4.5x | 6.0x | 7.5x |
| Terminal Year EBITDA Estimate ($M) | $430 | $570 | $720 |
DCF Results
| Item | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| PV of FCFs (Yrs 1–5, $M) | $997 | $1,167 | $1,364 |
| Terminal Value (EV, $M) | $1,935 | $3,420 | $5,400 |
| PV of Terminal Value ($M) | $1,182 | $2,175 | $3,585 |
| Total Enterprise Value ($M) | $2,179 | $3,342 | $4,949 |
| Less: Net Debt ($M) | ($639) | ($639) | ($639) |
| Implied Equity Value ($M) | $1,540 | $2,703 | $4,310 |
| Implied Price / Share | $31.43 | $55.16 | $87.96 |
FCF projections are based on FY2025 FCF of $296.4M (Operating Cash Flow $445.3M minus CapEx $148.9M). Terminal values use exit-multiple method applied to normalized terminal year EBITDA. WACC reflects a small-cap energy company cost of capital with long-term beta ~1.3–1.5 and Baa3/BB-rated debt.[1] DCF is indicative and sensitive to crack spread cycles; the base case DCF price of $55.16 closely corroborates the current market price.
9. Football Field Valuation Summary
The table below consolidates all five valuation methods into a single comparable range. The current share price of $55.27 is shown for reference.
| Valuation Method | Bear (Low) | Base | Bull (High) | Signal vs. $55.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA — LTM (FY2025) | $45.14 | $76.81 | $103.32 | UNDERVALUED |
| EV/EBITDA — NTM (FY2026E) | $30.59 | $63.55 | $74.20 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| P/E — Forward | $62.58 | $91.40 | $127.96 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EV/Revenue | $25.02 | $55.47 | $108.76 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| Price/Book | $30.85 | $61.70 | $92.55 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| DCF (FCF-based) | $31.43 | $55.16 | $87.96 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| Blended Average | $37.60 | $67.18 | $99.13 | UNDERVALUED (BASE) |
Blended average is a simple arithmetic mean across all six methods. The current price of $55.27 sits below the blended base of $67.18, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 21.5% to base intrinsic value under current consensus estimates. The bear range ($37.60) represents the floor scenario under severe margin compression. The P/E method strongly signals undervaluation if the 6.97x forward multiple re-rates toward sector norms.
10. Analyst Ratings & Sentiment
Source: Screenshot (Seeking Alpha, April 17, 2026).[2]
| Rating Source | Rating | Score |
|---|---|---|
| SA Analysts | STRONG BUY | 4.75 / 5.00 |
| Wall Street | BUY | 4.12 / 5.00 |
| Quant (Factor-Based) | STRONG BUY | 4.93 / 5.00 |
All three rating systems are aligned positively. The high Quant score (4.93/5.00) is notable — quantitative screens are typically picking up the combination of low forward P/E (6.97x), positive momentum (+318% 1-year), and clean balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA 1.01x). The Wall Street consensus BUY score of 4.12 suggests buy-side analysts see material upside even at current levels.
11. Key Investment Risks
Upside Risks (Positive Catalysts)
- Crack spread widening: PARR is operationally leveraged; a $1/bbl improvement in refining margin adds ~$68M/yr to EBITDA at 187.8 Mbpd throughput. Goldman Sachs (Apr 2026) highlighted geopolitical infrastructure disruption as an upside risk.[7]
- Share buybacks: PARR announced a $250M buyback programme in 2026. With only 49M shares outstanding, buybacks could add materially to EPS and signal management confidence.[1]
- Small Refinery Exemptions (SRE): If EPA reinstates SREs, PARR's Hawaii and Wyoming refineries could see significant compliance cost relief and margin improvement.
- Hawaii market moat: The Hawaii refinery operates in a captive island market with natural supply constraints, historically yielding above-average margins vs. mainland peers.
Downside Risks (Bear Catalysts)
- Refining margin compression: Crack spreads are cyclical. FY2024 showed this vividly — Adj. EBITDA collapsed to $238.7M from $696.2M in FY2023. A repeat would push NTM EPS far below the current $9.14 estimate.
- Crude oil price volatility: As a price-taker on crude, PARR is vulnerable to supply shocks. WTI at $78/bbl (Goldman, Apr 2026[7]) is broadly constructive, but rapid crude rallies can compress margins.
- Regulatory risk: RFS compliance costs, California/Hawaii state-level clean energy mandates, and potential carbon pricing could add structural headwinds.
- Small-cap liquidity premium: With a $3.15B market cap, PARR attracts a higher illiquidity discount than large-cap refiners (VLO: $51B). Institutional ownership is lower, increasing volatility.
- FY2024 as a caution signal: The company posted a statutory net loss in FY2024 on non-cash items. While Adj. Net Income remained positive ($21.2M), the gap between reported and adjusted figures warrants ongoing scrutiny.
12. Valuation Verdict
At $55.27 per share, Par Pacific Holdings appears modestly to materially undervalued on most metrics. The current price is supported by the DCF base case ($55.16) and the EV/Revenue sector-average method ($55.47), suggesting the market is already pricing in 2026 EBITDA compression (to ~$475M midpoint). However, relative to the LTM EBITDA base case ($64–$89), P/E re-rating potential ($82–$127), and book-value anchors ($62–$92), there is meaningful upside if the company sustains earnings at or above its FY2025 level.
| Metric | PARR (Current) | Sector Average | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 6.97x | ~12–14x (ex-CVR) | Deeply Cheap |
| EV/EBITDA (LTM) | 5.99x | 7.89x | Cheap |
| EV/EBITDA (NTM) | ~7.98x | 7.36x | Fairly Priced (NTM) |
| P/B | 1.79x | ~2.0–2.5x typical | Slightly Cheap |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.01x | 1.95x | Superior Balance Sheet |
| 52-Week Performance | +318% | Sector avg ~+140% | Strong Momentum Risk |
| Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy (SA 4.75, Quant 4.93, WS 4.12) | Highly Constructive | |
Key Valuation Conclusion
The primary valuation signal is the forward P/E of 6.97x — less than half the sector average. If Par Pacific sustains its FY2025 earnings quality through FY2026 and beyond, even a modest re-rating to 9–11x would imply a price of $82–$100 per share, representing upside of 48%–81% from the current $55.27. The $250M share buyback announced in 2026 provides additional downside protection and EPS accretion potential.
The bear case centers on a structural decline in crack spreads (as seen in FY2024), which would push 2026 EBITDA toward the lower end of estimates ($450M), making the NTM EV/EBITDA look less compelling. At $30–$45 bear scenario prices, the stock would be approaching book value, at which point the refinery assets alone offer a hard floor.
Blended Base-Case Target Price: $67.18 | Upside from $55.27: +21.5%
The strongest bull case (P/E re-rating to 11–14x forward EPS) suggests a price range of $100–$128, contingent on sustained margins and successful share buyback execution.
References
- Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. — Form 10-K, Fiscal Year 2025 (Filed February 2026). SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=PARR&type=10-K
- Seeking Alpha / Screenshot provided by user — PARR stock data, analyst ratings, forward EPS and P/E. April 17, 2026. https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PARR
- Simply Wall St — Par Pacific Holdings analyst consensus estimates (Revenue, EPS FY2026E). April 2026. https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nyse-parr/par-pacific-holdings
- Yahoo Finance — Key Statistics for VLO, PSX, DINO, PBF, CVI, CLMT. Accessed April 17, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PARR/key-statistics/
- Zacks Investment Research — Industry Outlook: Oil and Gas Refining & Marketing. April 16, 2026. https://www.zacks.com/stocks/industry-rank/industry/oil-and-gas-refining-and-marketing-90
- Equidam / Damodaran Online — Industry EV/EBITDA multiples for US Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing. January 2026. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
- Goldman Sachs Research — Energy Sector Outlook: 2026 WTI Crude Forecast. April 15, 2026. (Reported via public financial media.)